SAP tilts - positive or negative

It was a good tradition for the SAP CEO to deliver a speech on the opening day of the DSAG Annual Congress. In the first year of his tenure, ex-CEO Jim Hagemann Snabe still spoke in English - it was the time of the SAP dual leadership together with the American Bill McDermott. At the end of his talk, Snabe announced to enthusiastic applause that he wanted to learn German and would then give his keynote next year in the visitors' native language. That's how it was.

There is no longer such respect for DSAG members. It is not known why Christian Klein, as SAP CEO, is shying away from Leipzig. Rumors claim that he will not be SAP CEO for much longer and that he has already stepped down. Conversion, transformation, release change - names are just smoke and mirrors. The fact is that despite numerous imponderables and challenges, more and more existing SAP customers are switching to Hana and S/4 - with success. What has long been undifferentiated and vague now seems to be emerging as a positive trend. SAP is tipping into the positive, isn't it?

But it is also a fact that SAP is on the brink of collapse, as Jürgen Röder, financial editor at Handelsblatt since 2001, writes. Jürgen Röder published the following about SAP on Handelsblatt online at the beginning of September: "The long-term price picture for the Dax heavyweight is very explosive. The SAP share is currently focused on the important support zone around 95 euros, which was not undercut even during the Corona crash in mid-March. Today, Wednesday, the share is trading at 85.35 euros, down 0.2 percent. If the stock does not soon recover above 95 euros, SAP's entire upward trend of the past twenty years threatens to topple."

It is not a pretty picture for Professor Hasso Plattner when, in the fiftieth year of existence, the realization must mature that the past twenty years have been a misguided development. This means that not only Bill McDermott's reign, but also Hana, S/4 and Christian Klein have to be written off. Because SAP CFO Luka Mucic was not allowed to lead and save the ERP group, there will also be a new CFO from the beginning of the new year: Dominik Asam comes from Airbus, where he was also CFO.

Dominik Asam has had a very interesting and successful professional career and will join SAP with a lot of experience. It would hardly be surprising if Professor Hasso Plattner were to appoint him as the new CEO in a fly-by-night move, because Christian Klein has other career plans - similar to Luka Mucic. What will then happen to the share price is uncertain: optimists will see the price rise well above 100 euros, pessimists will see the price plummet to well below 85 euros. SAP tips - into the positive or negative.

In terms of revenue, SAP could tip into the positive very soon. The plan is to increase the cloud subscription and maintenance fee by 3.3 percent each. However, it is uncertain whether there will also be better support, more performance and a significant further development of SAP Business Suite 7 (ECC) in the future. The fact is that the old promises no longer apply: With the scaling effect of a cloud computing, not only AWS, Google, Microsoft and SAP will earn more, but it should also become cheaper for existing customers.