Deadlock

No school grades are given or managers pilloried here, because it is exclusively about the SAP community, about a roadmap for SAP existing customers. Constructive and important was the maintenance extension for the S/4 release change.

By 2027/2030, all the answers should be on the table, so that an existing customer can evaluate which ERP system he wants to work with for the next 25 years. Michael Kroker wrote quite correctly in Wirtschaftswoche: "A DAX giant under pressure. Once SAP, always SAP? Those days are over!"

In other words, Christian Klein has used his analytical mind to try to square the circle for SAP. What some brilliant mathematicians managed to do with Fermat's Great Theorem after 350 years, the three musketeers - Christian Klein, Jürgen Müller and Thomas Saueressig - will probably not manage to do any time soon.

After the rough handover of SAP leadership from Bill McDermott to Jennifer Morgan and Christian Klein, the challenge still seemed relatively simple - much like Pierre de Fermat's 17th century theorem. Fermat's starting point was the Pythagorean theorem, which everyone knows and uses many times: a2 + b2 = c2. Within a few minutes, the Pythagorean theorem can be clearly proven for everyone.

Perhaps similarly simple as a greenfield customizing of Hana and S/4. What Fermat did was not only very descriptive, but at first glance very simple - similar to Bill McDermott's well-known formula: Run Simple.

Fermat replaced the square symbols with "n" in the Pythagorean theorem with n equals greater than 2. What now? Is there a solution to the equation an + bn = cn? After 350 years we know: It is only possible for n equal to 1 or 2. Now Christian Klein has neither this time nor does he appear as a team player. Shortly after the new dual leadership at SAP, Klein took the helm and SAP co-CEO Jennifer Morgan had to go.

Constructive dissent is not welcome in Walldorf. Already before, under Bill McDermott, the then Chief Technology Officer Bernd Leukert had to leave overnight because he had other ideas about the integration of a McDermott's cloud acquisitions. Leukert is currently very successful as Chief Technology Officer at Deutsche Bank.

Cloud pioneer and SAP executive Rob Enslin suffered a similar fate. His opinion was not sought after either and he went to Google. Jennifer Morgan had to leave, as did SAP board member Adaire Fox-Martin, who excellently led global sales.

However, major challenges can only be solved in a team or together with a community; see the Great Fermata Theorem. It is questionable whether a solution will be found at all: The computer scientist would speak of deadlock. If SAP CEO Klein satisfies his existing customers, he loses the cloud story. If Klein pretends to be innovative and buys a start-up like the Berlin company Signavio, then the analysts and the press celebrate him, but the existing customers are left confused - a product similar to Signavio's has been on the SAP price list (PKL) for many years and is supplied by Celonis.

The cloud story seems to be the biggest construction site at the moment, because new SAP customers naturally gravitate to the initially low-cost cloud model. But financially, it would be important for SAP not only to make a quick S/4 release switch, but also to lift its existing customers into the cloud.

Another deadlock: Cloud is the story, but long-time users remain in on-premises. In the long term, the cloud appears too expensive and too inflexible. And just as SAP has no answer to AnyDB after 2025, there is no convincing cloud exit strategy. But if you don't know how to get out, you obviously don't want to get in - another deadlock.

The list of inconsistencies can be continued almost indefinitely: SAP's existing customers are presented with one no-code/low-code application after another. A few years ago, SAP reached an agreement with the Siemens subsidiary Mendix. Last year, Chief Technology Officer Jürgen Müller presented Ruum as SAP's own low-code offering.

A few weeks ago, SAP CEO Christian Klein explained to SAP's existing customers the acquisition of Berlin-based start-up Signavio for its planned focus on process mining, but also including a no-code application. In mid-February, SAP announced the acquisition of no-code developer AppGyver. Thus, in the next quarter, the PKL (price and conditions list) should include four no-code/low-code providers.
The existing SAP customer is spoilt for choice.

What looked simple at the beginning of Christian Klein's CEO career, like the Pythagorean theorem, developed within a very short time into the problem of the century similar to Fermat's theorem. If things continue in this direction, SAP will come to a standstill and the deadlock will be final.

However, the SAP Executive Board as a whole offers hope. The mix with the newcomers from Microsoft, Sabine Bendiek and Julia White, is almost perfect. If Christian Klein now also becomes a team player, without excessive desire for controlling, everything could be good again.