Upgrade - unease remains

Info from SAP's semi-annual report from last July: In the first half of 2021, the number of S/4 customers increased by about 1,000 to over 17,000. Compared to the same period last year, this corresponds to an increase of 17 percent. That is, after all, in the double digits, but also not necessarily an upswing that gives cause for euphoria. There is no discernible reason why this pace should accelerate just now. And even if the speed were doubled or even tripled - it would still only be a few percentage points more who now rely on the new product generation instead of SAP ECC.

Out of sight...

SAP itself is not least responsible for this: By extending mainstream maintenance until 2027, the Walldorf-based company finally took the pressure out itself. Regular customer surveys by xSuite reflect this. The latest survey took place in November 2021 among nearly 70 accounting, SAP and IT professionals from SAP user companies. It yielded the following results: Only 13 percent of companies are already using S/4 Hana or plan to migrate this year. Fifty-six percent plan to tackle the switch between 2023 and 2025, nine percent in 2026 and 2027, and 22 percent not until then or not at all - results that show striking consistency across similar xSuite surveys in recent years.

Innovation backlog

There may be other market surveys. Their (positively or negatively) divergent results can probably also be attributed to divergent survey bases. For a software manufacturer, however, the mood within its own customer base is the only relevant yardstick. And this should certainly raise questions in this case. Because it is doubtful whether the wait-and-see attitude is wise. Inevitably, an innovation backlog will form here. In the not too distant future, this will mean that tens of thousands of SAP customers will want to migrate within three years and will need support from consulting companies. This is a demand that the market is unlikely to meet. It will be good for manufacturers of SAP add-on solutions (and their customers) if their software solutions can handle a migration without any problems and continue to run seamlessly before, during and after the S/4 conversion.