The old rules no longer apply

SAP has to reinvent itself, because the old rules no longer apply: not only are existing customers and partners putting up with the erratic product development and escalating licensing policy, but financial analysts and investors are also punishing the global ERP market leader on the stock market. Some analysts still cherish the dream of a share price beyond 300 euros, but at the moment the SAP share price is only around 170 euros - the old rules no longer apply!
„Simultaneous Non-simultaneities“ is the title of a textbook by Manfred Füllsack. It is an introduction to complexity research and describes the current state of the world quite accurately. This fact is all the more astonishing because the first edition of the book was published back in 2011. The conclusion: even if the old rules no longer apply, fundamental things hardly change, or only very slowly. SAP boss Christian Klein is stuck in this discourse of change and inertia. For him, there is no longer any forward or backward.
Existing SAP customers, partners, friends, employees, investors and analysts are puzzling over the future possibilities of SAP in particular and ERP in general. SAP CEO Christian Klein does not provide any comprehensible or in-depth answers. The mantra of a triumvirate of cloud, AI and quantum computing is not enough. There is a great risk that cloud computing from hyperscalers, AI from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta and Google and a possible quantum computing revolution will cause SAP sales to collapse in around ten years' time, both in the short and long term, and that the SAP share price will fall well below 100 euros.
SAP's added value in the area of cloud computing is modest. Former CEO Bill McDermott tried to make up for the shortfall with numerous acquisitions. Christian Klein then had to close or reorganize many construction sites. SAP no longer had the resources for real innovation. The result: SAP does cloud computing like all its competitors - the global ERP group became arbitrary and interchangeable in the cloud sector. The cloud stock market hype is over.
SAP has hit the wall several times with AI. Right from the start, Christian Klein failed to develop a consistent strategy. Numerous AI partnerships were possibly intended to cover up the lack of a plan. A cooperation with the German AI start-up Aleph Alpha ended in no man's land. SAP lacks AI concepts, while the IT market demands answers: Aleph Alpha founder Jonas Andrulis is currently trying to develop an LLM (Large Language Model) for business-to-business processes with management consultants Roland Berger, which Christian Klein failed to do.
According to a report in the German newspaper Handelsblatt, SAP's latest field of activity is new-fangled quantum computing. What surprises many observers is the naivety with which SAP is going about this: the success of quantum computing is far from a foregone conclusion and the effort involved will be many times greater than for cloud and AI. Quantum superiority as proof that quantum algorithms are superior to conventional algorithms and data structures has only been partially proven. If quantum computing is ever able to provide added value for ERP, there will be numerous quantum tools and program libraries at that time, making SAP's current efforts a waste of resources.
Naturally, IT history will repeat itself: just as classic IT providers such as SAP are facing extinction due to AI today, quantum computing may threaten the existence of AI companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic in the future. SAP will always be threatened by technological change, so the old rules of the past were correct: business and organizational excellence and moderate technical innovation - but these rules no longer apply, because AI and AI agents can now create business excellence on their own. What now, SAP?
There is a theory of complex systems. It is reasonable to assume that SAP has paid too little attention to the fundamentals of computer science and business administration in recent years and has followed IT trends such as the cloud, AI and quantum computing too closely. Disciplines such as cybernetics, systems, game and network theory or the simulation of complex systems are not included in the SAP discourse. There would be enough material for ERP innovations from the fields of cellular automata, game and network theory through to machine learning, agentic AI and self-referentiality. Manfred Füllsack's book is highly recommended to SAP CEO Christian Klein, because the old rules no longer apply in the simultaneous non-simultaneity.