SAP's Lost Innocence

Over the holidays, I had time to think about our future, the future of the SAP community, and, of course, the future of SAP. SAP is on the verge of collapse. Because of its intellectual property, the ERP group could be at least three times as large it is today—with the future chairman of the supervisory board, Punit Renjen, comes the opportunity to unleash SAP's potential. (Editor's note: unfortunately, our E3 author did not have a crystal ball at the time of writing and was caught off guard. Punit Renjen is history, but the needs and potential are still there).

With a few exceptions, SAP CEO Christian Klein and his board members are not doing a bad job. But at the end of the day, they are simply managing the global ERP market leader and half-heartedly chasing global IT trends such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence. The SAP community searches in vain for independent opinions and competences. Things used to be different! Everyone chose SAP because no one else could map the complex structures and processes of midsize and large companies.

Unique selling point

Technology is easily copied and will become even more interchangeable with future AI tools. A good friend of mine was on a study trip to China many years ago. While visiting a university, he was asked as an ERP expert to inspect the ERP system programmed by the students.

At the time, my friend had a very successful SAP career behind him, so he was able to evaluate an ERP system in principle, even in a short period of time. Out of courtesy to the hosts, he didn't want to be the spoilsport. He sat down in front of a screen and started experimenting. He succeeded in almost every transaction on the first try. The screen interface was unconvincing, but functional. After a few minutes, he politely told his Chinese hosts: "Thank you very much, but this is an SAP system, which I am very familiar with. The Chinese managers and professors were equally polite, but very firm in their denial.

Whether this Chinese university had cleverly copied the SAP system, using only the same transaction codes, could not be determined. It will not be an isolated case, because future AI systems will be able to simulate and copy any algorithm, any user interface, and any system behavior. Many technical systems will very quickly lose their unique selling point. Cloud computing will not be a USP or competitive advantage. Experts are already using lift and shift to move almost any IT system into the cloud. AI will do this much better in the future.

Megatrends instead of core strengths

SAP lost its innocence when it started chasing the general technology megatrends. Instead of concentrating on its own core strength of organizational business processes, SAP CEO Christian Klein is currently trying to become the better hyperscaler. Or is he?

With its standard business applications, SAP is unique amongst software vendors. With a commitment to its own strengths, stringent communication, and good storytelling, SAP could triple its size! Punit Renjen led the way at Deloitte Consulting, increasing revenues by about 70 percent to 59 billion USD.

A partir de mayo, Punit Renjen sólo será presidente del consejo de supervisión de SAP y, por tanto, no será responsable operativo, pero si consigue separar el grano de la paja mediante una hábil política de personal, cortando muchas cuerdas y formando un equipo SAP nuevo, ágil y comunicativo, al margen de sensibilidades personales y méritos de larga data, sí, entonces SAP podría triplicar su tamaño actual en 2040, cuando S/4 se retire definitivamente.

Punit Renjen can turn SAP around. He can show the board members a way forward and multiply SAP's revenue. There will be a good deal of resistance, because many supervisory board members, board members, and executives have made themselves comfortable. I have a long list of SAP executives who don't want to change.